BOS
55%
@
August 15, 2026
PIT
45%
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Sonny Gray
vs
PIT
Jared Jones
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Simulation only | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Elo ratings | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| Market (implied) | 54.0% | 46.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
4.7
PIT avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 6.0% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
| PIT | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Nick Sogard
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Adley Rutschman
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Masataka Yoshida
- Caleb Durbin
- Jarren Duran
- Andruw Monasterio
PIT
- Spencer Horwitz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Nick Gonzales
- Esmerlyn Valdez
- Jacob Gonzalez
- Jake Mangum
- Ronny Simon
- Rafael Flores Jr.
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.82
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1569
PIT: 1465
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +110 |
| Bovada | -130 | +108 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -124 | +115 |
| Caesars | -125 | +115 |