Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Simulation only | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Elo ratings | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Market (implied) | 61.4% | 38.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 4.6% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| TOR | 4.9% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Ben Rice
- Spencer Jones
- Luis García Jr.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Heliot Ramos
- Ryan McMahon
- Austin Wells
- George Lombard Jr.
TOR
- Brett Bateman
- Nathan Lukes
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- George Springer
- Andrés Giménez
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Jesús Sánchez
- Ernie Clement
- Brandon Valenzuela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -172 | +158 |
| Bovada | -179 | +147 |
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -165 | +153 |
| Caesars | -161 | +151 |
Model Analysis
The market is treating this like Schlittler is the safer arm just because his ERA is prettier, but the underlying profile says he's a righty who gives up hard contact and issues too many free passes to be a road favorite. Toronto happens to run out the exact bats that punish that mistake, with Guerrero and Springer both posting xwOBAs north of .390 against right-handed pitching. Schlittler's barrel rate against righties is nearly ten percent, which is the kind of number that turns a closed-roof night at the Rogers Centre into a problem. Woods Richardson doesn't need to be brilliant, he just needs to keep pace in a game the board has already conceded. At +158 on the better Elo team at home, you're getting paid to bet the coin flip.