STL
35%
@
August 15, 2026
CHC
65%
Pitching Matchup
STL
Michael McGreevy
vs
CHC
Matthew Boyd
Win Probability
| Source | STL | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 35.3% | 64.7% |
| Simulation only | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Elo ratings | 26.8% | 73.2% |
| Market (implied) | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.2
CHC avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 6.8% | 11.0% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| CHC | 5.8% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Jordan Walker
- Alec Burleson
- José Fermín
- Masyn Winn
- Blaze Jordan
- Everson Pereira
- Pedro Pagés
CHC
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Seiya Suzuki
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Nico Hoerner
- Michael Conforto
- Dansby Swanson
- Miguel Amaya
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.94
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 4 mph out
Elo Ratings
STL: 1469
CHC: 1619
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +158 | -172 |
| Bovada | +145 | -177 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -171 |
| Caesars | +157 | -172 |