ARI
46%
@
August 15, 2026
ATL
54%
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
vs
ATL
Grant Holmes
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Simulation only | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Elo ratings | 41.0% | 59.0% |
| Market (implied) | 44.3% | 55.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.3
ATL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.4% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| ATL | 5.2% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Corbin Carroll
- Gabriel Moreno
- Ketel Marte
- Lars Nootbaar
- Nolan Arenado
- Max Kepler
- Tim Tawa
- Ryan Waldschmidt
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Mauricio Dubón
- Lane Thomas
- Austin Riley
- Sean Murphy
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.01
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
92°F
Wind: 6 mph cross
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1533
ATL: 1573
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -132 |
| Bovada | +112 | -134 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -127 |
| Caesars | +125 | -135 |