MIA
44%
@
August 15, 2026
CIN
56%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Ryan Gusto
vs
CIN
Brady Singer
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Simulation only | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Elo ratings | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Market (implied) | 49.4% | 50.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
5.5
CIN avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 3.7% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% |
| CIN | 3.9% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Otto Lopez
- Griffin Conine
- Heriberto Hernández
- Javier Sanoja
- Owen Caissie
- Joe Mack
- Graham Pauley
CIN
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- JJ Bleday
- Tyler Stephenson
- Eugenio Suárez
- Héctor Rodríguez
- Dane Myers
- Matt McLain
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.36
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
90°F
Wind: 6 mph in
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1466
CIN: 1513
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -108 |
| Bovada | -109 | -111 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -101 | -106 |
| Caesars | -105 | -105 |