Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | PHI | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Simulation only | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Elo ratings | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Market (implied) | 58.6% | 41.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PHI wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 5.1% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| MIN | 5.1% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PHI
- Kyle Schwarber
- Trea Turner
- Bryce Harper
- Luis Arraez
- Alec Bohm
- Edmundo Sosa
- Bryan De La Cruz
- J.T. Realmuto
- Derek Hill
MIN
- Austin Martin
- Byron Buxton
- Ryan Jeffers
- Royce Lewis
- Josh Bell
- Luke Keaschall
- Brooks Lee
- Kaelen Culpepper
- Victor Caratini
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PHI | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -140 | +130 |
| Bovada | -148 | +124 |
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -141 | +131 |
| Caesars | -153 | +143 |
Model Analysis
Luzardo is a completely different pitcher against lefties than righties, and the Twins happen to run out a lineup full of the exact bats that give him trouble. Buxton, Jeffers, and Martin all hit right-handed and have been substantially better against southpaws, which matters because Luzardo's numbers versus righties (a .304 xwOBA and a walk rate pushing nine percent) look nothing like the video-game line he posts against lefties. This is essentially a coin flip game between two evenly matched teams, with the sim landing on a one-run margin, and Minnesota is being priced like the clear underdog. +143 on the side with the platoon advantage in a projected low-scoring fight is the entire pitch.