SDP
61%
@
August 15, 2026
CLE
39%
ML
SDP ML (+111) — 62% win, +9.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Randy Vasquez
vs
CLE
Joseph Cantillo
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Simulation only | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Elo ratings | 74.5% | 25.5% |
| Market (implied) | 47.1% | 52.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
4.7
CLE avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 5.6% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| CLE | 6.2% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Luis Rengifo
- Manny Machado
- Ty France
- Jackson Merrill
- Austin Hays
- Luis Campusano
- Xander Bogaerts
- Jake Cronenworth
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Jo Adell
- Travis Bazzana
- Angel Genao
- Patrick Bailey
- Brayan Rocchio
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.95
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 5 mph in
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1629
CLE: 1419
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +106 | -114 |
| Bovada | +101 | -121 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +111 | -119 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Model Analysis
San Diego is the far better team getting a plus price because the market can't get past the "road dog in Cleveland" framing. Elo has the Padres 210 points clear of the Guardians, which is the kind of gap you usually see in September when a contender rolls into a tanker's yard. Vasquez isn't a great arm, but Cleveland's lineup outside of Ramirez doesn't punish mediocre command the way San Diego's does, and Tatis and Machado are both sitting north of a .355 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this year. At +111, you're getting the stronger roster, the deeper lineup, and a coin-flip price on a game that isn't a coin flip.