SEA
39%
@
August 15, 2026
HOU
61%
ML
HOU ML (-116) — 61% win, +6.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Emerson Hancock
vs
HOU
Hayden Wesneski
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| Simulation only | 50.1% | 49.9% |
| Elo ratings | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| Market (implied) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
4.8
HOU avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 5.1% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| HOU | 6.1% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Taylor Ward
- Cole Young
- Randy Arozarena
- Dominic Canzone
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Brock Rodden
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Taylor Trammell
- Jose Altuve
- Daulton Varsho
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1425
HOU: 1563
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +108 | -116 |
| Bovada | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +111 | -119 |
| Caesars | +110 | -121 |
Model Analysis
Emerson Hancock is the kind of arm that looks fine in the aggregate and falls apart the moment you check who he's actually facing tonight. Houston runs out Alvarez and a lineup built to punish exactly this profile, and Hancock's split against lefties (a .391 xwOBA with a double-digit walk rate) is the tell. Wesneski isn't a star, but he misses more bats than his counterpart and doesn't give the free passes back, which is how you win a game the sims already have as a coin flip. Getting the better team, the better starter, and the better matchup at -116 is the whole argument.