TEX
51%
@
August 15, 2026
Athletics
49%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
vs
Athletics
J.T. Ginn
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Elo ratings | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Market (implied) | 54.8% | 45.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.0
Athletics avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 5.0% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Athletics | 5.1% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Joc Pederson
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Brandon Nimmo
- Ezequiel Duran
- Evan Carter
- Jake Burger
- Austin Wynns
- Nicky Lopez
Athletics
- Henry Bolte
- Jacob Wilson
- Jonah Heim
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Tommy White
- Lawrence Butler
- Jonathan Ornelas
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1433
Athletics: 1383
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -138 | +118 |
| Bovada | -133 | +111 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -135 | +112 |
| Caesars | -125 | +115 |