WSN
41%
@
August 15, 2026
NYM
59%
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Brad Lord
vs
NYM
Sean Manaea
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Simulation only | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Elo ratings | 36.6% | 63.4% |
| Market (implied) | 43.3% | 56.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.5
NYM avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = NYM wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 5.7% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| NYM | 5.4% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- Dylan Crews
- Andrés Chaparro
- Brady House
- CJ Abrams
- Harry Ford
- Jacob Young
- Daylen Lile
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
NYM
- A.J. Ewing
- Francisco Lindor
- Bo Bichette
- Carson Benge
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Jared Young
- Brett Baty
- Jorge Polanco
- Francisco Alvarez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.1
BB: 1.06
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 6 mph in
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1455
NYM: 1526
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -138 |
| Bovada | +117 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +126 | -136 |
| Caesars | +125 | -135 |