ATL
53%
@
September 27, 2026
MIA
47%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
JR Ritchie
vs
MIA
Janson Junk
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Simulation only | 51.0% | 48.9% |
| Elo ratings | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| Market (implied) | 50.1% | 49.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
5.0
MIA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 5.1% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| MIA | 6.0% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Michael Harris II
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Matt Olson
- Drake Baldwin
- Mauricio Dubón
- Ozzie Albies
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Sean Murphy
MIA
- Otto Lopez
- Kyle Stowers
- Heriberto Hernández
- Griffin Conine
- Javier Sanoja
- Jakob Marsee
- Agustín Ramírez
- Graham Pauley
- Joe Mack
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1546
MIA: 1486
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -111 | -109 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -111 | -109 |
| Caesars | -110 | -107 |