BAL
43%
@
September 27, 2026
NYY
57%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Shane Baz
vs
NYY
Elmer Rodriguez
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Simulation only | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Elo ratings | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Market (implied) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.8
NYY avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 4.9% | 8.7% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% |
| NYY | 4.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Dylan Beavers
- Pete Alonso
- Gunnar Henderson
- Coby Mayo
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand
- Colton Cowser
- Jeremiah Jackson
- Christian Franklin
- Carlos Narváez
NYY
- Ben Rice
- Cody Bellinger
- Heliot Ramos
- Luis García Jr.
- Spencer Jones
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- George Lombard Jr.
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.15
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
64°F
Wind: 14 mph cross
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1554
NYY: 1601
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +115 | -138 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +114 | -134 |