Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Market (implied) | 52.9% | 47.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 5.2% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| BOS | 5.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Seiya Suzuki
- Alex Bregman
- Tyrone Taylor
- Nico Hoerner
- Matt Shaw
- Michael Busch
- Carson Kelly
- Dansby Swanson
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Jahmai Jones
- Adley Rutschman
- Wilyer Abreu
- Ceddanne Rafaela
- Caleb Durbin
- Trevor Story
- Nick Sogard
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -126 | +106 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -125 | +104 |
| Caesars | -124 | +106 |
Model Analysis
Imanaga's splits are the whole story here, and the market is pretending they don't exist. He's a lefty who handles left-handed bats just fine and gets hit hard by righties, which is inconvenient when Boston's lineup is stacked with the exact profile that has punished him all year, led by a Roman Anthony who's running a .412 xwOBA against right-handers and slides right into the platoon slot. Add a park that plays up on runs but suppresses the homers Imanaga is prone to, and the game script tilts toward a grinding, contact-heavy night rather than the swing-for-the-fences kind he survives. Getting the better team at plus money in that spot is the pitch, and +106 is generous for a coin flip Chicago shouldn't be favored in to begin with.