CIN
49%
@
September 27, 2026
TOR
51%
RL
CIN +1.5 (-140) — 66% win, +7.9% edge
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Brandon Williamson
vs
TOR
Max Scherzer
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Market (implied) | 38.5% | 61.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.8
TOR avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = TOR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 5.4% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| TOR | 5.5% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 14.1% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- Carlos Jorge
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- JJ Bleday
- Tyler Stephenson
- Héctor Rodríguez
- Juan Brito
- Matt McLain
TOR
- Brett Bateman
- Alejandro Kirk
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- George Springer
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Charles McAdoo
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
- Myles Straw
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1490
TOR: 1475
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +146 | -178 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -176 |
Model Analysis
Scherzer at 41 is a different pitcher depending on which side of the plate you're standing on, and Cincinnati happens to be built to attack the side he can't hide anymore. Lefties are slugging him to the tune of a .360 xwOBA with a barrel rate north of 15%, which is bad news when Elly and Suárez get to swing from that box all night. The Reds don't need to win this game outright, they just need to keep it inside a run, and a projected half-run margin suggests the market is pricing Toronto like the gap is much bigger than it is. Getting a run and a half with the better lineup matchup, at a price the board should be closer to even on, is where you want to be.