Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Simulation only | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Elo ratings | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Market (implied) | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 5.5% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% |
| Athletics | 5.7% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Jose Altuve
- Yainer Diaz
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Lucas Spence
- Taylor Trammell
Athletics
- Henry Bolte
- Lawrence Butler
- Shea Langeliers
- Jeff McNeil
- Zack Gelof
- Donovan Walton
- Carlos Cortes
- Tommy White
- Jonah Heim
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -172 | +144 |
| Bovada | -193 | +158 |
| BetMGM | -185 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -187 | +154 |
| Caesars | -185 | +155 |
Model Analysis
Houston is the better team and probably wins the game, but the price on the Astros as run-line favorites assumes a level of separation that the projected score just does not support. Our sim has this landing inside a run, which is exactly the kind of margin where taking the plus-1.5 at even money prints over a long enough sample. Seth Johnson is a small-sample unknown with a 31.5% strikeout rate, meaning even the ugly version of his night comes with enough whiffs to keep the A's within shouting distance, and Langeliers has been the kind of righty bat that punishes command mistakes. Getting a coin-flip payout on a spot the market has priced closer to 50/50 is the whole ballgame.