TEX
50%
@
September 27, 2026
MIN
50%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
vs
MIN
Dean Kremer
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Simulation only | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Elo ratings | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Market (implied) | 53.1% | 46.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
4.8
MIN avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 5.3% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| MIN | 5.6% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Ezequiel Duran
- Nicky Lopez
- Elias Díaz
- Evan Carter
- Alejandro Osuna
MIN
- Luke Keaschall
- Austin Martin
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Brooks Lee
- Royce Lewis
- Emmanuel Rodriguez
- Aaron Sabato
- Kaelen Culpepper
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.99
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 2 mph in
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1505
MIN: 1460
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -126 | +106 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +105 |
| Caesars | -122 | +105 |