ARI
45%
@
September 27, 2026
SDP
55%
ML
SDP ML (+124) — 55% win, +7.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
ARI
Mike Soroka
vs
SDP
Randy Vasquez
Win Probability
| Source | ARI | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Simulation only | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Elo ratings | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Market (implied) | 56.2% | 43.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ARI avg runs
5.1
SDP avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ARI wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 4.8% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| SDP | 6.2% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ARI
- Lars Nootbaar
- Ketel Marte
- Gabriel Moreno
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Corbin Carroll
- Nolan Arenado
- Tim Tawa
- Pavin Smith
- Jordan Lawlar
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Dustin Harris
- Manny Machado
- Ty France
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
- Luis Campusano
- Jake Cronenworth
- Samad Taylor
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
ARI: 1572
SDP: 1633
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ARI | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -134 | +114 |
| Bovada | -148 | +124 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +118 |
| Caesars | -137 | +117 |
Model Analysis
San Diego is the better team by a real margin, and the market has them as a coin-flip underdog because Randy Vasquez is on the mound and nobody wants to touch that. Fair enough, Vasquez is a walk-and-pray arm, but Arizona's counter is a Diamondbacks lineup that leans heavily on one bat, and Tatis and Machado get to spend the night hunting a starter they're built to punish. A road dog getting plus money with the superior roster and a park that quietly suppresses runs is the kind of shape you take before the number moves. +124 on the better team is the whole argument.