Pitching Matchup
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| Simulation only | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Elo ratings | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Market (implied) | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 9.9% | 13.9% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| SEA | 9.3% | 13.4% | 16.2% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Wade Meckler
- Vaughn Grissom
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Denzer Guzman
- Josh Lowe
- Christian Moore
- Bryce Teodosio
SEA
- J.P. Crawford
- Randy Arozarena
- Dominic Canzone
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Michael Arroyo
- Cole Young
- Weston Wilson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Weather
Elo Ratings
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +152 | -184 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +155 | -182 |
Model Analysis
Gilbert is one of the best strikeout arms in the league, and the market has priced this as if that alone decides the game, ignoring that a coin-flip projection at plus money is a gift regardless of who's on the mound. The sim spits out a 3.6 to 3.6 dead heat, which tracks when you remember Kikuchi has been sneaky useful against this Seattle lineup profile and the roof-closed park suppresses the exact kind of damage Gilbert usually surrenders when he does get touched. Trout and Neto are the type of righty bats who can ambush a fastball-heavy arm early, and if the Angels steal two runs in the first three innings, this is suddenly a bullpen game. +155 on a genuine 50/50 is the pitch, and the board is a full seven points behind where it should be.