LAD
64%
@
September 27, 2026
SFG
36%
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Justin Wrobleski
vs
SFG
Carson Seymour
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| Simulation only | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Elo ratings | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| Market (implied) | 68.8% | 31.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.1
SFG avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 4.9% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| SFG | 6.5% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Kyle Tucker
- Teoscar Hernández
- Max Muncy
- Andy Pages
- Tommy Edman
- Hunter Feduccia
SFG
- Jonah Cox
- Brett Harris
- Victor Bericoto
- Bo Davidson
- Andrew Knizner
- Marcelo Mayer
- Shay Whitcomb
- Scott Bandura
- Christian Koss
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1612
SFG: 1396
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -260 | +215 |
| Bovada | -265 | +215 |
| BetMGM | -235 | +195 |
| DraftKings | -247 | +200 |
| Caesars | -260 | +210 |