NYM
52%
@
September 27, 2026
WSN
48%
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Sean Manaea
vs
WSN
DJ Herz
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Simulation only | 50.8% | 49.1% |
| Elo ratings | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.1
WSN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.4% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| WSN | 5.1% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Mark Vientos
- Carson Benge
- Marcus Semien
- Francisco Alvarez
- A.J. Ewing
- Luis Torrens
WSN
- James Wood
- Andrés Chaparro
- Brady House
- CJ Abrams
- Dylan Crews
- Yohandy Morales
- Harry Ford
- Jacob Young
- Nasim Nuñez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1522
WSN: 1474
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Bovada | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -109 | -108 |