TBR
54%
@
September 27, 2026
PHI
46%
ML
TBR ML (+138) — 54% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Nick Martinez
vs
PHI
Zack Wheeler
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Simulation only | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Elo ratings | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| Market (implied) | 41.1% | 58.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
5.0
PHI avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 4.8% | 8.6% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| PHI | 3.9% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Liam Hicks
- Junior Caminero
- Victor Mesa Jr.
- Richie Palacios
- Jonny DeLuca
- Cedric Mullins
- Taylor Walls
PHI
- Kyle Schwarber
- Trea Turner
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Brandon Marsh
- Justin Crawford
- J.T. Realmuto
- Edmundo Sosa
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.18
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
62°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1632
PHI: 1499
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +138 | -164 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +134 | -162 |
| Caesars | +130 | -152 |
Model Analysis
Taking the Rays as a dog against Wheeler feels wrong until you remember the price is doing most of the work, and the projected margin is essentially zero. Wheeler is the better arm, nobody's arguing that, but a plus-money line on a game that grades as a coin flip is the entire pitch. Tampa's righty bats up top - Díaz, Caminero, Aranda - are exactly the profile that has scratched runs off elite stuff all year, and Nick Martinez has quietly kept his side in games he had no business being in. At +138 on a projection that lands within a fifth of a run, you're getting paid to be on the wrong name.